CFTC CoTR Reports as of 15-May 2012

【CFTC CoTR Reports as of 15-May 2012】
下記、最新のＣＦＴＣ明細（貴金属）です。先物と先物・オプション合計の両方を載せてみます。

予想通りゴールドは投資家のネットロングが縮小。
ショートが増えたことが要因のようですが、11万枚台まで縮小しました。
今週半ば以降の1530ドル台から1600ドル目前までの急伸局面では
こういった先物市場でのポジションのカバーがトリガーとなった可能性高そうですね。

As I expected, COMEX Gold total net positions by investors shrink last week according to CFTC COTR reports.
Non-commercial's total net long position extends decrease to 114,142 lots (355 tons), lower since mid Dec 2008... fund holds short reached to 7 months high, 49,909 lots. check it the chart below please.

China Could Beat India in Gold Demand

【China Could Beat India in Gold Demand】

 さて金融不安の再燃を受けて当面の底を打ったんでしょうか、ゴールド。 1590ドル台まで帰ってきました。 Bloombergによる中国の金需要についてのレポートです。

CFTC CoTR reports as of 8-May 2012

【CFTC CoTR reports as of 8-May 2012】

久々にCFTC明細の話題を。
COMEXゴールドのファンドのポジション、
先物ポジションのみではネットロングは 08年12月末以来の低水準まで縮小しました。
前週比1.7万枚減でおよそ12.3万枚。

新規の買い材料に乏しい上、再び信用不安の高まりを背景に市場からの撤退が目立ちます。
今週また1500ドル台まで下げているだけに、
来週の統計ではさらにショート増加、ロング減少となりそうな気がしますが、どうなるでしょうか。


Increasingly risk appetite shrinks triggered investors unwind long positions in Comex Gold futures, showed by CFTC CoTR reports released by last weekend.
I anticipated that total net long would decrease next week amid gold price at Fresh 4.5-Month Low, as back off investor bullish mind... what do you think?

Following the chart, please see it.

【Paulson Hedge Funds Take Hit on Gold Stocks】

 今年も厳しいようで、ポールソン・・・。

Slowdown in TOCOM Precious metals...

【Monthly volume; Getting slowdown in TOCOM precious metals in Apr 12】
先月のTOCOMの出来高推移、貴金属編です。
ゴールド、月間81.8万枚と大台の100万枚を大きく下回り、
10年9月以来の低水準となりました。

その他も軒並み低調、全体でも132.8万枚。
昨秋のゴールド単体の出来高も下回っています。

厳しい状況ですね。
固有の材料の改善が見込めないところだけに
海外市場が噴くなり、なんとか持ち直す材料が欲しいところです。

Quarterly PGM production reports and more... by Amplats

先ほどの投稿の続き。
アンプラッツの四半期ごとの各種生産報告と販売について。
こうして見るとやはりプラチナの比重がウェートが非常に大きいことが分かります。
やや逆説的ですが「売れなきゃ困る；売らなきゃいけない」という実態が見えてきますね。

そんなに逼迫してない需給を「タイトだ」、って言いたい気持ちも理解できなくもないといったところでしょうか。

attached the graph is Amplats' Quarterly PGM production reports and gross sales revenue by metal.

Major PGM producer reports production drop Jan-Mar in 2012...

とりあえず、先月後半に出てましたメジャーどころの12年最初の四半期の生産動向を
理由は様々なようですが、大手の生産はPt、Pdとも減ってました。

Last month, Major PGM producer released "Production report" in Q1 (Jan-Mar) 2012.
It sees production of platinum and palladium decreased during the quarter than last year.
Please see the news as follow.

【Russia's Norilsk Q1 nickel output up 7 pct y/y】

(Reuters) - Russia's Norilsk Nickel's , the world's largest nickel and palladium miner, said on Friday its first-quarter 2012 nickel output rose, year-on-year, while production of other its core metals fell.
Nickel output rose thanks to increased output from the Russian divisions, the launch of Australian operation Lake Johnston, and increased an loading rate at Norilsk Nickel's Harjavalta refinery in Finland.
Output of nickel rose by 7 percent to 75,824 tonnes in the first quarter, while copper production reached 88,456 tonnes and was down 6 percent.
The Arctic mining giant attributed a reduction in copper production to a scheduled decrease in output from the Russian divisions.

In platinum group metals, palladium output fell by 5 percent to 649,000 troy ounces and platinum production decreased by 2 percent to 166,000 ounces.

"Reduction of palladium output reflects technical decrease of production from Russian Divisions due to accumulation of unfinished stockpile," Norilsk said, adding that it was partially compensated by the growth of metal production at Harjavalta.

Norilsk shares in Moscow rose by 1.97 percent by 1450 GMT, while its GDRs in London added 2.249 percent.


【Amplats Q1 output down, 2012 production guidance unchanged 】

Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) says it will hit its full-year production target for 2012, despite a sharp fall in output in the first three months of the year.

The world's largest primary platinum producer reported a 24% dip in Q1 production of refined platinum to 402,800 oz, blaming planned convertor plant maintenance at Rustenburg.
Platinum equivalent refined production increased by five per cent to 593,200 oz, due to a lower number of safety stoppages, the miner said.

There were 13 safety halts in the first quarter of 2012, compared with 32 in the preceding quarter.

Amplats also attributed this rise to a strong performance from the Mogalakwena open pit mine and ramp-up of the Unki mine.
"Increased production at  Unki, Mogalakwena, Khuseleka,  Khomanani, Siphumelele, Bathopele,  Thembelani, Dishaba and Union South mines was partly offset by lower volumes from Tumela and Union North mines," Amplats said in a release.
"Mogalakwena's head grade and recoveries improved by 5% and 24% respectively compared with Q1 2011 as a result of the improved concentration process."
Platinum production in South Africa was down in Q1, with the industry hit by a government safety drive and a six-week strike at number two producer Impala Platinum.

Amplats reported refined production of palladium and rhodium decreased by 18% and 37% respectively, citing a different source mix from operations and different pipeline processing times for each metal.

Deutsche Bank: Gold Spec Net Length Means ‘More Supportive Positioning Environment’

Deutsche Bank: Gold Spec Net Length Means ‘More Supportive Positioning Environment’

(Kitco news) One factor in gold’s favor, should the market get a fresh bullish catalyst, is the significant reduction in speculative net length among futures traders over the past two months, says Deutsche Bank. 

This means more potential for buying than if speculators were already more heavily in the market. “We believe this provides a more supportive positioning environment in the event that U.S. labor market data disappoints and/or the U.S. dollar resumes its weakening trend,” Deutsche Bank says.
As of the most recent data through Feb. 3, the large non-commercial accounts—commonly referred to as the funds—were net long by 149,599 lots for futures and options combined, down 32% from the Feb. 28 five-month high of 221,542. 

【CFTC Weekly CoTR reports for precious metals; Futures and Option combined】

Traders sees turn to bullish...weekly survey showed

Survey Participants Look For Higher Gold Prices Next Week

Gold survey results: Bullish: 12 Bearish: 5 Hold: 4, by Kitco News

Most participants in Kitco News’ weekly gold survey look for gold prices to move higher next week.In the Kitco News Gold Survey, 21 participants responded this week. Of those, 12 see prices up, five see prices down and four say sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.
Those who anticipate gains by gold cite an increase in ideas that the Federal Reserve may consider more loosening of monetary policy after all following softer economic data since last Friday’s U.S. monthly employment report. Previously, stronger data and Fed comments had left markets thinking there would be no third round of quantitative easing.
Traders also cite gold’s ability to hold chart support in the low $1,600s and bounce from there.
“China is reportedly getting ready to lower bank reserves, Europe is about to embark on buying bonds to lower interest rates in Spain and Italy, and QE3 is again being spoken about as U.S. economic data turns softer from what was seen in the first quarter of the year,” said Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of The Linn Group.

Those anticipating a retreat cite the inability of gold to probe through nearby chart resistance just above $1,680, as well as recent gains by the U.S. dollar.

Gold seen to reach All time high by year end...

Commerz bank のコモディティヘッドの見通し。
年末に最高値を更新する、とのこと。
弱気ばかりとは限らず、強気の見方もまだまだ根強いようです。

Gold traders expected to "Bearish" for the first time in 2012...

相変わらず荒っぽい動きが続くマーケットですが
Bloombergのサーベイでゴールドは今年初めて弱気となったとのことです

【Gold Traders Bearish for First Time in 2012】




Gold survey results: Bullish: 9 Bearish: 15 Hold: 5
Gold traders are bearish for the first time this year after the Federal Reserve signaled it may refrain from more monetary stimulus and jewelers in India, the world’s biggest bullion market, shut to protest a new tax.
Fifteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to decline next week and five were neutral, the highest proportion since Dec. 30. Imports by India may have plunged as much as 81 percent in March and could drop 40 percent in the second quarter, the Bombay Bullion Association said April 2. Indian jewelers, who sell more gold than Australian and U.S. mines produce in a year, were closed today for a 20th day.
Gold traders are bearish for the first time this year after the Federal Reserve signaled it may refrain from more monetary stimulus and jewelers in India, the world’s biggest bullion market, shut to protest a new tax.
Fifteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to decline next week and five were neutral, the highest proportion since Dec. 30. Imports by India may have plunged as much as 81 percent in March and could drop 40 percent in the second quarter, the Bombay Bullion Association said April 2. Indian jewelers, who sell more gold than Australian and U.S. mines produce in a year, were closed today for a 20th day.


金トレーダー：今年に入って初の弱気－インドのストで
４月５日（ブルームバーグ）：金トレーダーは今年に入って初めて弱気姿勢を示している。米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が追加刺激策を実施しない可能性を示唆したことに加え、世界最大の金市場であるインドの宝飾業者が新税に抗議して営業を停止していることが背景にある。
ブルームバーグがアナリスト29人を対象に実施した調査では、15人が来週の金相場は下落すると予測し、５人が中立姿勢を示した。下落予想と中立姿勢を示したアナリストの割合は昨年12月30日以降で最大となった。

・・・中略

在ロンドンのアナリスト、キャロル・ファーガソン氏は「量的緩和見通しが後退し、それを米景気が堅調さを増していると読み取るなら、金にとっては弱材料になる」と指摘。「金は今年、安全な投資先としての輝きを若干失っている。インドの宝飾品市場は依然として非常に重要だ。ストライキが長期化すれば懸念が強まる」との見方を示した。

Amid lack of fresh factor, TOCOM total trading volume little recovered in Mar...

【TOCOM have been trend in downward but increased total turnover for Precious metals in March】
ＴＯＣＯＭの3月の出来高、貴金属編です。
3月は昨年10月以来の高水準だったんですね。
ゴールドは115.6万枚と1-2月の平均102万枚を10％以上も上回りました。
とはいえ厳しい状況に変わりなし。
とりあえずはこの水準をキープするのが当面の目標となるのでしょう、きっと。

CFTC Commitment of Traders Reports as of 27-Mar. 2012

【CFTC Commitment of Traders Reports as of 27-Mar12】
久々にＣＦＴＣ明細です。
オイルや穀物に比べると貴金属はあまり目立った動きがないですね。
ゴールドは結果的にショートカバーということでしょうか、
ショートの減少分でネットロングは大きく拡大しています。

各社さまざま・・・

ゴールドの長期見通し、過度に強気とは流石にいかないようです。
ＧＳ、ＵＢＳが最近出した見通しを。
ＵＢＳはＰＧＭについては楽観的に見ているようです。
パラジウムは強含み推移だろうっていうニュース、わりと最近よく見かけますね。

Goldman Maintains Its 12-Month Gold Price Forecast Of $1,940/Oz
(Kitco News) - Goldman Sachs is maintaining its outlook for gold prices, forecasting the yellow metal at $1,785 an ounce in three months, $1,840 in six months and $1,940 in 12 months, citing subdued U.S. economic growth and further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve later this year. “We acknowledge, however, that continued strong U.S. economic data poses growing risk to our forecast for rising gold prices. Net, we reiterate our view that at current price levels gold remains a compelling trade but not a long-term investment, and we continue to recommend a long position in December 2012 Comex gold futures,” they said.

UBS Positive on Palladium, Platinum, Iron Ore Over Three Months
UBS AG has positive outlooks on palladium, platinum and iron ore over the next three months, according to an e-mailed report. There were “subdued price outlooks” for gold, zinc, thermal coal, uranium and alumimum, and “downside risks” for copper and nickel, UBS said.

UBS Lowers Its 2012 Gold Estimate To $1,680/Oz; Leaves 2013 Estimate At $1,725/Oz(Kitco News) - UBS lowered its 2102 average gold price estimate to $1,680 an ounce, down from the previous figure of $2,050, the bank said, reflecting the recent swoon in prices.
It left its 2013 average estimate for gold at $1,725. Its silver 2012 average price outlook was lowered 4% to $33.40 an ounce, with its 2012 estimate of $27.50 left unchanged. The bank raised its platinum average price estimate for 2012 to $1,700 an ounce from $1,675 and left its 2013 average estimate at $1,900. The palladium forecast was increased by 5% to $725 an ounce for an average price in 2012; the 2013 price estimate was not changed from the previous forecast of $850.
“A continuing U.S. recovery, material erosion in Fed quantitative easing expectations, rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and questions surround the durability of the Fed’s low-until-2014 rate pledge all combine to act as the prime culprits that cause us to pare back, for now, our previously aggressive call” on gold, UBS said Thursday in a research note dated Wednesday.
While the bank as reduced its gold price expectations for now, this is not a “sea-change in our core view,” they said. Gold prices are expected to be weaker in the second quarter, but they expect a sharp rise in gold prices in the second half of 2012.
For the near-term, gold will have more competition with growth-orientated asset classes, they said.
“For us to start thinking that the multi-year bull run is under threat, we have to be sure that the US economic data is not going to roll over and that credit stresses won’t emerge again a few months down the line. And on that likelihood, which markets started to price-in in March, we’re not fully convinced. If they did, the emergence of a deflationary environment would likely push the monetary authorities to reflate, which would be very gold-positive,” they said.

Gold a great buy at current price levels - GFMS

東工取社長：東穀取から農産物市場の移管、受け入れは慎重に検討

やっぱり東工取に移管を打診したんですね。
まぁそりゃそうですよね。
それにしても東工取の社長コメント
「（中略）・・・商品として将来性のないものを引き受けろと言われても株主は納得しない」っていうのは
なんか厳しそうな気もしてきます。

【Gold a great buy at current price levels - GFMS】
過去1ヶ月で10％近く下落し、1月以来の水準にあるゴールド相場について、
やはりＧＦＭＳは強気の見通しを示しています。
ロイターに同社会長が見解を示してましたので、ご参考まで。
長期的に見ればファンダメンタルズは強く、買いの好機とのことです。
なぜか動画ファイルがうまくアップ出来なかったので、下記ＵＲＬご参照くださいませ

Gold prices have fallen nearly 10% in the past month, but long-term fundamentals are strong, making this a good time to buy up the shiny metal, says Philip Klapwijk of Thomson Reuters GFMS.

http://jp.reuters.com/news/video/popup?videoId=232112541&videoChannel=204&pos=1.96

弱いゴールド現物需要は・・・

ゴールド、1650ドル付近で小動きが続きますね。
昨日の毎日新聞にも上昇トレンド終了か、みたいな記事が載ってました。
一般紙にまで取り上げられると国内個人の買い意欲もいっそう低下となるのでしょうか。
分かりませんが。

個人の買い、ということで言えば
目下動きのあるネタとして、インドはじめアジアでの買い意欲の低下という材料が挙げられます。
昨日もUBS、HSBCといったところがこれを指摘していました。
景況見通しが明るくなってきたとはいえ、中央銀行の買いが今後も続くと楽観的に見ても
こういった動きはやはり弱材料といえそうですね。

UBS: Gold Consolidates But 'Vulnerable' Due To Rising Yields, Slack Physical Demand
(Kitco News) - Gold is consolidating and has held $1,640-an-ounce support, but nevertheless remains “vulnerable” after its recent pullback, says UBS. “Upside drivers are lacking and physical markets have yet to show a convincing response to lower prices,” the bank says. “With U.S. Treasury yields still hovering near the recent highs, and U.S. data still beating expectations on balance, any gold recovery is likely to be limited.” Demand from India has been “noticeably muted” due to an ongoing strike by jewelers to protest an increase in import duties and the excise tax on gold, UBS says. “The nation-wide strike which began over the weekend is expected to continue until today,” UBS says. “It will be interesting to see how much pent-up demand has been accumulated over the last few days on account of the strike. Appetite from India in the coming weeks will be an important gauge of the impact of the new taxes and the underlying strength of gold demand from the country.”   

HSBC: Indian Strike Hurts Retail Gold Sales In Short Term, May Release Pent-Up Demand
(Kitco News) - A strike by Indian gold jewelers has hurt retail demand in the short term, but lower prices may release pent-up demand, says HSBC. A trade group for Indian jewelers said Tuesday it plans to extend a strike for two more days to protest a recent duty increase on gold bars and coins and platinum. Since the strike began, the bullion industry had lost roughly $200 million in sales as of Tuesday, according to Indian merchants. “Without taking Indian gold premiums and mark-ups into consideration, this translates roughly to 120,000oz in daily sales lost to the strike,” HSBC says. “Gold prices reacted negatively to the news of the extension….However, once the labor action ends, there may be some pent-up demand in the Indian retail market if gold prices continue to fall, we believe.”     

さよなら、東穀取・・・かな

貴金属とは直接関係ありませんが、国内取引所の話題をひとつ。

東穀取、農産物市場の移管で方針固める

さっきこんなニュースがブルームバーグに出てました。
どうやら関西か東工取に移管するらしい、とのこと。まぁトコムでしょうか。
なんにしてもコメの失敗が痛かったですね。
思い返せば電子化に失敗したあたりからどうにも空回ってばかりだったような・・・。

少し前に近所まで行ったついでに東穀取の建物が以前あった場所に行ってみたところ
マンションを建設していて時代の流れを感じると共に寂しい気分になったのを思い出しました。

LBMA: Daily average Gold-ounce transfers decline 12.2% in Feb.

【LBMA: Daily Gold-Ounce Transfers Decline 12.2% During February】

ＬＢＭＡのトランスファーレポートも2月分が一昨日リリースされていましたね。
2月の取引量は金額ベースでは前月から減っていました。
まぁ、所謂会員間の取引量ですんでこれがマーケットの流動性に直結するかといえば
ＬＭＥのように全てのトレードをクリアリングしているわけではないので、かなり「？」ですが。。。

下記ご参考まで

LBMA: Daily Gold-Ounce Transfers Decline 12.2% During February
(Kitco News) - The amount of gold transferred between accounts of London Bullion Market Association members fell by 12.2% from January to February to an average of 19.5 million per day, the organization said Tuesday.
The LBMA releases clearing statistics each month showing the net volume of gold and silver transferred between accounts of members, which essentially provides a snapshot of the trading activity.
Total gold transfers rose by 6.9% to a daily average of 2,631. However, the average value of the transfers fell 7.6% to $33.9 billion.
Silver ounces transferred rose by 7.2% in February to a daily average of 160 million. The number of transfers in silver rose increased by 11% to 841 per day, while the value of the transfers rose 18.9% to $5.46 billion.
The year-on-year comparisons show that the average number of gold ounces transferred daily rose by 7.7%, while the number of transfers increased by 42.9% and the average value of gold transfers increased by 36.7%.
The year-on-year data for silver also were all higher. They show that ounces transferred daily rose by 13.3%, number of transfers increased by 42.3% and total value of the transfers rose by 25.7%.

French bank revises price forecast for Platinum

先述ネタの続き。
BNP Paribasもプラチナ相場の見通しを引き上げていました。
米国経済のリカバリーと南ア問題がサポート要因となるだろうと見ているようです。

BNP Paribas Revises Platinum Forecast Up To $1,840/Oz For 2012
(Kitco News) - BNP Paribas has revised upward its 2012 platinum forecast but trimmed the palladium forecast marginally. Both metals have been supported by supply issues in South Africa, the bank says. “We have revised our demand outlook slightly higher for both platinum and palladium in the light of a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in the U.S., which will in turn support vehicle sales, and an improved outlook for industrial consumption,” BNP Paribas says. “However, given depressed auto sales in Europe, we do not expect a significant recovery in global platinum demand in 2012.” The bank now looks for $1,840-per-ounce platinum in 2012 and $2,320 in 2013, compared to its February forecasts of $1,770 and $2,195. Palladium has been range-trading around $700 for the last two months, but BNP says “we remain positive” on prospects due to better-than-expected economic growth. “We have made a slight downward change to our palladium forecast, mostly to mark-to-market, and now expect the metal to average US$825/in 2012….” The previous forecast was $835. The 2013 forecast was left at $1,125.

PGM price to beat Gold??

【Behind the Oil rally, Platinum and Palladium to beat Gold?】



ゴールドに対しては弱気な見方が多いようです。
ＵＢＳの1，3ヶ月のゴールド相場の見通し引き下げのニュース

UBS Downgrades One,- Three-Month Views For Gold Prices
(Kitco News) - UBS has downgraded its one-month target for gold to $1,550 from $1,775 an ounce and its three-month target to $1,600 from $1,950. Financial markets are more accepting of a sustainable economic recovery, particularly in the U.S., the bank says. As a result, while Treasury yields rise, gold buyers will be “reluctant,” UBS says. “What's more, expectations that the Fed will keep rates low through to late 2014 are being challenged,” UBS says. “Our economists hold the view that policy normalization is likely to begin halfway through next year.” Further, the outlook for Europe’s economy may not be as bleak as once feared, UBS says. Meanwhile, the response to the recent price decline from the physical market has been “very inconsistent,” and investors “are not using this as an opportunity to buy cheaper gold,” UBS says. “Does all this mean the end of the multi-year bull run? No, it doesn't,” the bank says. Analysts say the Fed is not about to embark on a rate-hike cycle soon and many still question whether the Fed would risk the tentative recovery by hiking rates. “The virtual explosion in central-bank balance sheets around the world has potentially far-reaching consequences for gold, and real interest rates in many regions will be negative for some time to come,” UBS says. But these are “knowns,” the bank continues. “Gold needs U.S. data to disappoint in Q2 or inflation expectations to manifest. And at a minimum, it needs a much greater response from physical markets.”

また、Barclays Capitalはこんな記事を

“Should gold close below $1,640, we would concede defeat and follow the trend here as well.”

だそうです。

Barclays: Macro Picture, Investor Flows Bullish For Gold; Fundamentals, Technicals Bearish
(Kitco News) - Barclays Capital describes the macro environment and investor flows as currently bullish for gold but the fundamentals and technicals as bearish. While the Federal Reserve upgraded its economic assessment and thereby reduced market hopes for further U.S. quantitative easing, the central bank retained its view that rates will remain low until “late 2014,” Barclays says. Meanwhile, exchange-traded-product holdings have been stable despite the recent price drop and gold-coin sales in the U.S. “remain healthy,” although short-term tactical investors have scaled back their net length, the bank says. As for fundamentals, Barclays describes physical demand as “quiet, with only sharp price corrections triggering interest.” India has doubled its duty on gold imports and a Reuters poll of local dealers suggests imports could fall if prices stay at current levels, Barclays points out. Technically, “we are struggling to hold onto a neutral near-term view,” Barclays says. “Should gold close below $1,640, we would concede defeat and follow the trend here as well.”