PGM price to beat Gold??

【Behind the Oil rally, Platinum and Palladium to beat Gold?】



ゴールドに対しては弱気な見方が多いようです。
ＵＢＳの1，3ヶ月のゴールド相場の見通し引き下げのニュース

UBS Downgrades One,- Three-Month Views For Gold Prices
(Kitco News) - UBS has downgraded its one-month target for gold to $1,550 from $1,775 an ounce and its three-month target to $1,600 from $1,950. Financial markets are more accepting of a sustainable economic recovery, particularly in the U.S., the bank says. As a result, while Treasury yields rise, gold buyers will be “reluctant,” UBS says. “What's more, expectations that the Fed will keep rates low through to late 2014 are being challenged,” UBS says. “Our economists hold the view that policy normalization is likely to begin halfway through next year.” Further, the outlook for Europe’s economy may not be as bleak as once feared, UBS says. Meanwhile, the response to the recent price decline from the physical market has been “very inconsistent,” and investors “are not using this as an opportunity to buy cheaper gold,” UBS says. “Does all this mean the end of the multi-year bull run? No, it doesn't,” the bank says. Analysts say the Fed is not about to embark on a rate-hike cycle soon and many still question whether the Fed would risk the tentative recovery by hiking rates. “The virtual explosion in central-bank balance sheets around the world has potentially far-reaching consequences for gold, and real interest rates in many regions will be negative for some time to come,” UBS says. But these are “knowns,” the bank continues. “Gold needs U.S. data to disappoint in Q2 or inflation expectations to manifest. And at a minimum, it needs a much greater response from physical markets.”

また、Barclays Capitalはこんな記事を

“Should gold close below $1,640, we would concede defeat and follow the trend here as well.”

だそうです。

Barclays: Macro Picture, Investor Flows Bullish For Gold; Fundamentals, Technicals Bearish
(Kitco News) - Barclays Capital describes the macro environment and investor flows as currently bullish for gold but the fundamentals and technicals as bearish. While the Federal Reserve upgraded its economic assessment and thereby reduced market hopes for further U.S. quantitative easing, the central bank retained its view that rates will remain low until “late 2014,” Barclays says. Meanwhile, exchange-traded-product holdings have been stable despite the recent price drop and gold-coin sales in the U.S. “remain healthy,” although short-term tactical investors have scaled back their net length, the bank says. As for fundamentals, Barclays describes physical demand as “quiet, with only sharp price corrections triggering interest.” India has doubled its duty on gold imports and a Reuters poll of local dealers suggests imports could fall if prices stay at current levels, Barclays points out. Technically, “we are struggling to hold onto a neutral near-term view,” Barclays says. “Should gold close below $1,640, we would concede defeat and follow the trend here as well.”