ゴールドの長期見通し、過度に強気とは流石にいかないようです。
ＧＳ、ＵＢＳが最近出した見通しを。
ＵＢＳはＰＧＭについては楽観的に見ているようです。
パラジウムは強含み推移だろうっていうニュース、わりと最近よく見かけますね。
Goldman Maintains Its 12-Month Gold Price Forecast Of $1,940/Oz
(Kitco News) - Goldman Sachs is maintaining its outlook for gold prices, forecasting the yellow metal at $1,785 an ounce in three months, $1,840 in six months and $1,940 in 12 months, citing subdued U.S. economic growth and further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve later this year. “We acknowledge, however, that continued strong U.S. economic data poses growing risk to our forecast for rising gold prices. Net, we reiterate our view that at current price levels gold remains a compelling trade but not a long-term investment, and we continue to recommend a long position in December 2012 Comex gold futures,” they said.
UBS Positive on Palladium, Platinum, Iron Ore Over Three Months
UBS AG has positive outlooks on palladium, platinum and iron ore over the next three months, according to an e-mailed report. There were “subdued price outlooks” for gold, zinc, thermal coal, uranium and alumimum, and “downside risks” for copper and nickel, UBS said.
UBS Lowers Its 2012 Gold Estimate To $1,680/Oz; Leaves 2013 Estimate At $1,725/Oz(Kitco News) - UBS lowered its 2102 average gold price estimate to $1,680 an ounce, down from the previous figure of $2,050, the bank said, reflecting the recent swoon in prices.
It left its 2013 average estimate for gold at $1,725. Its silver 2012 average price outlook was lowered 4% to $33.40 an ounce, with its 2012 estimate of $27.50 left unchanged. The bank raised its platinum average price estimate for 2012 to $1,700 an ounce from $1,675 and left its 2013 average estimate at $1,900. The palladium forecast was increased by 5% to $725 an ounce for an average price in 2012; the 2013 price estimate was not changed from the previous forecast of $850.
“A continuing U.S. recovery, material erosion in Fed quantitative easing expectations, rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and questions surround the durability of the Fed’s low-until-2014 rate pledge all combine to act as the prime culprits that cause us to pare back, for now, our previously aggressive call” on gold, UBS said Thursday in a research note dated Wednesday.
While the bank as reduced its gold price expectations for now, this is not a “sea-change in our core view,” they said. Gold prices are expected to be weaker in the second quarter, but they expect a sharp rise in gold prices in the second half of 2012.
For the near-term, gold will have more competition with growth-orientated asset classes, they said.
“For us to start thinking that the multi-year bull run is under threat, we have to be sure that the US economic data is not going to roll over and that credit stresses won’t emerge again a few months down the line. And on that likelihood, which markets started to price-in in March, we’re not fully convinced. If they did, the emergence of a deflationary environment would likely push the monetary authorities to reflate, which would be very gold-positive,” they said.
2012年3月23日金曜日
Gold a great buy at current price levels - GFMS
東工取社長：東穀取から農産物市場の移管、受け入れは慎重に検討
やっぱり東工取に移管を打診したんですね。
まぁそりゃそうですよね。
それにしても東工取の社長コメント
「（中略）・・・商品として将来性のないものを引き受けろと言われても株主は納得しない」っていうのは
なんか厳しそうな気もしてきます。
【Gold a great buy at current price levels - GFMS】
過去1ヶ月で10％近く下落し、1月以来の水準にあるゴールド相場について、
やはりＧＦＭＳは強気の見通しを示しています。
ロイターに同社会長が見解を示してましたので、ご参考まで。
長期的に見ればファンダメンタルズは強く、買いの好機とのことです。
なぜか動画ファイルがうまくアップ出来なかったので、下記ＵＲＬご参照くださいませ
Gold prices have fallen nearly 10% in the past month, but long-term fundamentals are strong, making this a good time to buy up the shiny metal, says Philip Klapwijk of Thomson Reuters GFMS.
http://jp.reuters.com/news/video/popup?videoId=232112541&videoChannel=204&pos=1.96
やっぱり東工取に移管を打診したんですね。
まぁそりゃそうですよね。
それにしても東工取の社長コメント
「（中略）・・・商品として将来性のないものを引き受けろと言われても株主は納得しない」っていうのは
なんか厳しそうな気もしてきます。
【Gold a great buy at current price levels - GFMS】
過去1ヶ月で10％近く下落し、1月以来の水準にあるゴールド相場について、
やはりＧＦＭＳは強気の見通しを示しています。
ロイターに同社会長が見解を示してましたので、ご参考まで。
長期的に見ればファンダメンタルズは強く、買いの好機とのことです。
なぜか動画ファイルがうまくアップ出来なかったので、下記ＵＲＬご参照くださいませ
Gold prices have fallen nearly 10% in the past month, but long-term fundamentals are strong, making this a good time to buy up the shiny metal, says Philip Klapwijk of Thomson Reuters GFMS.
http://jp.reuters.com/news/video/popup?videoId=232112541&videoChannel=204&pos=1.96
2012年3月22日木曜日
弱いゴールド現物需要は・・・
ゴールド、1650ドル付近で小動きが続きますね。
昨日の毎日新聞にも上昇トレンド終了か、みたいな記事が載ってました。
一般紙にまで取り上げられると国内個人の買い意欲もいっそう低下となるのでしょうか。
分かりませんが。
個人の買い、ということで言えば
目下動きのあるネタとして、インドはじめアジアでの買い意欲の低下という材料が挙げられます。
昨日もUBS、HSBCといったところがこれを指摘していました。
景況見通しが明るくなってきたとはいえ、中央銀行の買いが今後も続くと楽観的に見ても
こういった動きはやはり弱材料といえそうですね。
UBS: Gold Consolidates But 'Vulnerable' Due To Rising Yields, Slack Physical Demand
(Kitco News) - Gold is consolidating and has held $1,640-an-ounce support, but nevertheless remains “vulnerable” after its recent pullback, says UBS. “Upside drivers are lacking and physical markets have yet to show a convincing response to lower prices,” the bank says. “With U.S. Treasury yields still hovering near the recent highs, and U.S. data still beating expectations on balance, any gold recovery is likely to be limited.” Demand from India has been “noticeably muted” due to an ongoing strike by jewelers to protest an increase in import duties and the excise tax on gold, UBS says. “The nation-wide strike which began over the weekend is expected to continue until today,” UBS says. “It will be interesting to see how much pent-up demand has been accumulated over the last few days on account of the strike. Appetite from India in the coming weeks will be an important gauge of the impact of the new taxes and the underlying strength of gold demand from the country.”
HSBC: Indian Strike Hurts Retail Gold Sales In Short Term, May Release Pent-Up Demand
(Kitco News) - A strike by Indian gold jewelers has hurt retail demand in the short term, but lower prices may release pent-up demand, says HSBC. A trade group for Indian jewelers said Tuesday it plans to extend a strike for two more days to protest a recent duty increase on gold bars and coins and platinum. Since the strike began, the bullion industry had lost roughly $200 million in sales as of Tuesday, according to Indian merchants. “Without taking Indian gold premiums and mark-ups into consideration, this translates roughly to 120,000oz in daily sales lost to the strike,” HSBC says. “Gold prices reacted negatively to the news of the extension….However, once the labor action ends, there may be some pent-up demand in the Indian retail market if gold prices continue to fall, we believe.”
昨日の毎日新聞にも上昇トレンド終了か、みたいな記事が載ってました。
一般紙にまで取り上げられると国内個人の買い意欲もいっそう低下となるのでしょうか。
分かりませんが。
個人の買い、ということで言えば
目下動きのあるネタとして、インドはじめアジアでの買い意欲の低下という材料が挙げられます。
昨日もUBS、HSBCといったところがこれを指摘していました。
景況見通しが明るくなってきたとはいえ、中央銀行の買いが今後も続くと楽観的に見ても
こういった動きはやはり弱材料といえそうですね。
UBS: Gold Consolidates But 'Vulnerable' Due To Rising Yields, Slack Physical Demand
(Kitco News) - Gold is consolidating and has held $1,640-an-ounce support, but nevertheless remains “vulnerable” after its recent pullback, says UBS. “Upside drivers are lacking and physical markets have yet to show a convincing response to lower prices,” the bank says. “With U.S. Treasury yields still hovering near the recent highs, and U.S. data still beating expectations on balance, any gold recovery is likely to be limited.” Demand from India has been “noticeably muted” due to an ongoing strike by jewelers to protest an increase in import duties and the excise tax on gold, UBS says. “The nation-wide strike which began over the weekend is expected to continue until today,” UBS says. “It will be interesting to see how much pent-up demand has been accumulated over the last few days on account of the strike. Appetite from India in the coming weeks will be an important gauge of the impact of the new taxes and the underlying strength of gold demand from the country.”
HSBC: Indian Strike Hurts Retail Gold Sales In Short Term, May Release Pent-Up Demand
(Kitco News) - A strike by Indian gold jewelers has hurt retail demand in the short term, but lower prices may release pent-up demand, says HSBC. A trade group for Indian jewelers said Tuesday it plans to extend a strike for two more days to protest a recent duty increase on gold bars and coins and platinum. Since the strike began, the bullion industry had lost roughly $200 million in sales as of Tuesday, according to Indian merchants. “Without taking Indian gold premiums and mark-ups into consideration, this translates roughly to 120,000oz in daily sales lost to the strike,” HSBC says. “Gold prices reacted negatively to the news of the extension….However, once the labor action ends, there may be some pent-up demand in the Indian retail market if gold prices continue to fall, we believe.”
2012年3月21日水曜日
さよなら、東穀取・・・かな
貴金属とは直接関係ありませんが、国内取引所の話題をひとつ。
東穀取、農産物市場の移管で方針固める
さっきこんなニュースがブルームバーグに出てました。
どうやら関西か東工取に移管するらしい、とのこと。まぁトコムでしょうか。
なんにしてもコメの失敗が痛かったですね。
思い返せば電子化に失敗したあたりからどうにも空回ってばかりだったような・・・。
少し前に近所まで行ったついでに東穀取の建物が以前あった場所に行ってみたところ
マンションを建設していて時代の流れを感じると共に寂しい気分になったのを思い出しました。
東穀取、農産物市場の移管で方針固める
さっきこんなニュースがブルームバーグに出てました。
どうやら関西か東工取に移管するらしい、とのこと。まぁトコムでしょうか。
なんにしてもコメの失敗が痛かったですね。
思い返せば電子化に失敗したあたりからどうにも空回ってばかりだったような・・・。
少し前に近所まで行ったついでに東穀取の建物が以前あった場所に行ってみたところ
マンションを建設していて時代の流れを感じると共に寂しい気分になったのを思い出しました。
LBMA: Daily average Gold-ounce transfers decline 12.2% in Feb.
【LBMA: Daily Gold-Ounce Transfers Decline 12.2% During February】
ＬＢＭＡのトランスファーレポートも2月分が一昨日リリースされていましたね。
2月の取引量は金額ベースでは前月から減っていました。
まぁ、所謂会員間の取引量ですんでこれがマーケットの流動性に直結するかといえば
ＬＭＥのように全てのトレードをクリアリングしているわけではないので、かなり「？」ですが。。。
下記ご参考まで
LBMA: Daily Gold-Ounce Transfers Decline 12.2% During February
(Kitco News) - The amount of gold transferred between accounts of London Bullion Market Association members fell by 12.2% from January to February to an average of 19.5 million per day, the organization said Tuesday.
The LBMA releases clearing statistics each month showing the net volume of gold and silver transferred between accounts of members, which essentially provides a snapshot of the trading activity.
Total gold transfers rose by 6.9% to a daily average of 2,631. However, the average value of the transfers fell 7.6% to $33.9 billion.
Silver ounces transferred rose by 7.2% in February to a daily average of 160 million. The number of transfers in silver rose increased by 11% to 841 per day, while the value of the transfers rose 18.9% to $5.46 billion.
The year-on-year comparisons show that the average number of gold ounces transferred daily rose by 7.7%, while the number of transfers increased by 42.9% and the average value of gold transfers increased by 36.7%.
The year-on-year data for silver also were all higher. They show that ounces transferred daily rose by 13.3%, number of transfers increased by 42.3% and total value of the transfers rose by 25.7%.
ＬＢＭＡのトランスファーレポートも2月分が一昨日リリースされていましたね。
2月の取引量は金額ベースでは前月から減っていました。
まぁ、所謂会員間の取引量ですんでこれがマーケットの流動性に直結するかといえば
ＬＭＥのように全てのトレードをクリアリングしているわけではないので、かなり「？」ですが。。。
下記ご参考まで
LBMA: Daily Gold-Ounce Transfers Decline 12.2% During February
(Kitco News) - The amount of gold transferred between accounts of London Bullion Market Association members fell by 12.2% from January to February to an average of 19.5 million per day, the organization said Tuesday.
The LBMA releases clearing statistics each month showing the net volume of gold and silver transferred between accounts of members, which essentially provides a snapshot of the trading activity.
Total gold transfers rose by 6.9% to a daily average of 2,631. However, the average value of the transfers fell 7.6% to $33.9 billion.
Silver ounces transferred rose by 7.2% in February to a daily average of 160 million. The number of transfers in silver rose increased by 11% to 841 per day, while the value of the transfers rose 18.9% to $5.46 billion.
The year-on-year comparisons show that the average number of gold ounces transferred daily rose by 7.7%, while the number of transfers increased by 42.9% and the average value of gold transfers increased by 36.7%.
The year-on-year data for silver also were all higher. They show that ounces transferred daily rose by 13.3%, number of transfers increased by 42.3% and total value of the transfers rose by 25.7%.
French bank revises price forecast for Platinum
先述ネタの続き。
BNP Paribasもプラチナ相場の見通しを引き上げていました。
米国経済のリカバリーと南ア問題がサポート要因となるだろうと見ているようです。
BNP Paribas Revises Platinum Forecast Up To $1,840/Oz For 2012
(Kitco News) - BNP Paribas has revised upward its 2012 platinum forecast but trimmed the palladium forecast marginally. Both metals have been supported by supply issues in South Africa, the bank says. “We have revised our demand outlook slightly higher for both platinum and palladium in the light of a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in the U.S., which will in turn support vehicle sales, and an improved outlook for industrial consumption,” BNP Paribas says. “However, given depressed auto sales in Europe, we do not expect a significant recovery in global platinum demand in 2012.” The bank now looks for $1,840-per-ounce platinum in 2012 and $2,320 in 2013, compared to its February forecasts of $1,770 and $2,195. Palladium has been range-trading around $700 for the last two months, but BNP says “we remain positive” on prospects due to better-than-expected economic growth. “We have made a slight downward change to our palladium forecast, mostly to mark-to-market, and now expect the metal to average US$825/in 2012….” The previous forecast was $835. The 2013 forecast was left at $1,125.
BNP Paribasもプラチナ相場の見通しを引き上げていました。
米国経済のリカバリーと南ア問題がサポート要因となるだろうと見ているようです。
BNP Paribas Revises Platinum Forecast Up To $1,840/Oz For 2012
(Kitco News) - BNP Paribas has revised upward its 2012 platinum forecast but trimmed the palladium forecast marginally. Both metals have been supported by supply issues in South Africa, the bank says. “We have revised our demand outlook slightly higher for both platinum and palladium in the light of a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in the U.S., which will in turn support vehicle sales, and an improved outlook for industrial consumption,” BNP Paribas says. “However, given depressed auto sales in Europe, we do not expect a significant recovery in global platinum demand in 2012.” The bank now looks for $1,840-per-ounce platinum in 2012 and $2,320 in 2013, compared to its February forecasts of $1,770 and $2,195. Palladium has been range-trading around $700 for the last two months, but BNP says “we remain positive” on prospects due to better-than-expected economic growth. “We have made a slight downward change to our palladium forecast, mostly to mark-to-market, and now expect the metal to average US$825/in 2012….” The previous forecast was $835. The 2013 forecast was left at $1,125.
PGM price to beat Gold??
【Behind the Oil rally, Platinum and Palladium to beat Gold?】
ゴールドに対しては弱気な見方が多いようです。
ＵＢＳの1，3ヶ月のゴールド相場の見通し引き下げのニュース
UBS Downgrades One,- Three-Month Views For Gold Prices
(Kitco News) - UBS has downgraded its one-month target for gold to $1,550 from $1,775 an ounce and its three-month target to $1,600 from $1,950. Financial markets are more accepting of a sustainable economic recovery, particularly in the U.S., the bank says. As a result, while Treasury yields rise, gold buyers will be “reluctant,” UBS says. “What's more, expectations that the Fed will keep rates low through to late 2014 are being challenged,” UBS says. “Our economists hold the view that policy normalization is likely to begin halfway through next year.” Further, the outlook for Europe’s economy may not be as bleak as once feared, UBS says. Meanwhile, the response to the recent price decline from the physical market has been “very inconsistent,” and investors “are not using this as an opportunity to buy cheaper gold,” UBS says. “Does all this mean the end of the multi-year bull run? No, it doesn't,” the bank says. Analysts say the Fed is not about to embark on a rate-hike cycle soon and many still question whether the Fed would risk the tentative recovery by hiking rates. “The virtual explosion in central-bank balance sheets around the world has potentially far-reaching consequences for gold, and real interest rates in many regions will be negative for some time to come,” UBS says. But these are “knowns,” the bank continues. “Gold needs U.S. data to disappoint in Q2 or inflation expectations to manifest. And at a minimum, it needs a much greater response from physical markets.”
また、Barclays Capitalはこんな記事を
“Should gold close below $1,640, we would concede defeat and follow the trend here as well.”
だそうです。
Barclays: Macro Picture, Investor Flows Bullish For Gold; Fundamentals, Technicals Bearish
(Kitco News) - Barclays Capital describes the macro environment and investor flows as currently bullish for gold but the fundamentals and technicals as bearish. While the Federal Reserve upgraded its economic assessment and thereby reduced market hopes for further U.S. quantitative easing, the central bank retained its view that rates will remain low until “late 2014,” Barclays says. Meanwhile, exchange-traded-product holdings have been stable despite the recent price drop and gold-coin sales in the U.S. “remain healthy,” although short-term tactical investors have scaled back their net length, the bank says. As for fundamentals, Barclays describes physical demand as “quiet, with only sharp price corrections triggering interest.” India has doubled its duty on gold imports and a Reuters poll of local dealers suggests imports could fall if prices stay at current levels, Barclays points out. Technically, “we are struggling to hold onto a neutral near-term view,” Barclays says. “Should gold close below $1,640, we would concede defeat and follow the trend here as well.”
ゴールドに対しては弱気な見方が多いようです。
ＵＢＳの1，3ヶ月のゴールド相場の見通し引き下げのニュース
UBS Downgrades One,- Three-Month Views For Gold Prices
(Kitco News) - UBS has downgraded its one-month target for gold to $1,550 from $1,775 an ounce and its three-month target to $1,600 from $1,950. Financial markets are more accepting of a sustainable economic recovery, particularly in the U.S., the bank says. As a result, while Treasury yields rise, gold buyers will be “reluctant,” UBS says. “What's more, expectations that the Fed will keep rates low through to late 2014 are being challenged,” UBS says. “Our economists hold the view that policy normalization is likely to begin halfway through next year.” Further, the outlook for Europe’s economy may not be as bleak as once feared, UBS says. Meanwhile, the response to the recent price decline from the physical market has been “very inconsistent,” and investors “are not using this as an opportunity to buy cheaper gold,” UBS says. “Does all this mean the end of the multi-year bull run? No, it doesn't,” the bank says. Analysts say the Fed is not about to embark on a rate-hike cycle soon and many still question whether the Fed would risk the tentative recovery by hiking rates. “The virtual explosion in central-bank balance sheets around the world has potentially far-reaching consequences for gold, and real interest rates in many regions will be negative for some time to come,” UBS says. But these are “knowns,” the bank continues. “Gold needs U.S. data to disappoint in Q2 or inflation expectations to manifest. And at a minimum, it needs a much greater response from physical markets.”
また、Barclays Capitalはこんな記事を
“Should gold close below $1,640, we would concede defeat and follow the trend here as well.”
だそうです。
Barclays: Macro Picture, Investor Flows Bullish For Gold; Fundamentals, Technicals Bearish
(Kitco News) - Barclays Capital describes the macro environment and investor flows as currently bullish for gold but the fundamentals and technicals as bearish. While the Federal Reserve upgraded its economic assessment and thereby reduced market hopes for further U.S. quantitative easing, the central bank retained its view that rates will remain low until “late 2014,” Barclays says. Meanwhile, exchange-traded-product holdings have been stable despite the recent price drop and gold-coin sales in the U.S. “remain healthy,” although short-term tactical investors have scaled back their net length, the bank says. As for fundamentals, Barclays describes physical demand as “quiet, with only sharp price corrections triggering interest.” India has doubled its duty on gold imports and a Reuters poll of local dealers suggests imports could fall if prices stay at current levels, Barclays points out. Technically, “we are struggling to hold onto a neutral near-term view,” Barclays says. “Should gold close below $1,640, we would concede defeat and follow the trend here as well.”
2012年3月19日月曜日
See how it's going TOCOM...
【What's going to happen to TOCOM...】
先週、東工取（TOCOM）がCMEとの連携強化に向けた動きを強める、という記事が出ていました。
TOCOMは1月半ばにゴールド市場で商品取引員同士（Ｙ善商事・ＫＯＹＯ証券等々）の
スプレッド絡みの討ち合いがあった後はだいぶマーケットが冷めてしまってますが、
商品取引員をはじめ国内の関係者の間ではもうかなり前からこの話は出ており、
ようやく表面化したというところでしょうか。
国内商品取引員は軒並み3月の決算もかなり厳しいものとなりそうということで、
それまでマーケットが規模を保つかというのも難しいところのようですが、
どうやら 2－3年後にはＣＭＥの傘下に入るという見方がコンセンサスとなっているようです。
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/123-M0LSMM6S972801.html
先週、東工取（TOCOM）がCMEとの連携強化に向けた動きを強める、という記事が出ていました。
TOCOMは1月半ばにゴールド市場で商品取引員同士（Ｙ善商事・ＫＯＹＯ証券等々）の
スプレッド絡みの討ち合いがあった後はだいぶマーケットが冷めてしまってますが、
商品取引員をはじめ国内の関係者の間ではもうかなり前からこの話は出ており、
ようやく表面化したというところでしょうか。
国内商品取引員は軒並み3月の決算もかなり厳しいものとなりそうということで、
それまでマーケットが規模を保つかというのも難しいところのようですが、
どうやら 2－3年後にはＣＭＥの傘下に入るという見方がコンセンサスとなっているようです。
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/123-M0LSMM6S972801.html
China's Gold demand to keep increasing
【China's Gold demand to keep increasing, WGC's view】
こちらは中国の金需要について
昨年末に中銀がまた大量の金準備を積み増したんじゃないかと囁かれていますが、
宝飾需要も強いぞ、ということのようです
こちらは中国の金需要について
昨年末に中銀がまた大量の金準備を積み増したんじゃないかと囁かれていますが、
宝飾需要も強いぞ、ということのようです
Gold will rise to $2025 next year..., UBS said
【UBS anticipated Gold will rise to $2025 next year】
先月末にＵＢＳのコモディティのヘッドが見通しを示していました。
強気、ですね。まぁこの当時ゴールド上がってましたし・・・。
先月末にＵＢＳのコモディティのヘッドが見通しを示していました。
強気、ですね。まぁこの当時ゴールド上がってましたし・・・。
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