Deutsche Bank: Gold Spec Net Length Means ‘More Supportive Positioning Environment’

Deutsche Bank: Gold Spec Net Length Means ‘More Supportive Positioning Environment’

(Kitco news) One factor in gold’s favor, should the market get a fresh bullish catalyst, is the significant reduction in speculative net length among futures traders over the past two months, says Deutsche Bank. 

This means more potential for buying than if speculators were already more heavily in the market. “We believe this provides a more supportive positioning environment in the event that U.S. labor market data disappoints and/or the U.S. dollar resumes its weakening trend,” Deutsche Bank says.
As of the most recent data through Feb. 3, the large non-commercial accounts—commonly referred to as the funds—were net long by 149,599 lots for futures and options combined, down 32% from the Feb. 28 five-month high of 221,542. 

【CFTC Weekly CoTR reports for precious metals; Futures and Option combined】

Traders sees turn to bullish...weekly survey showed

Survey Participants Look For Higher Gold Prices Next Week

Gold survey results: Bullish: 12 Bearish: 5 Hold: 4, by Kitco News

Most participants in Kitco News’ weekly gold survey look for gold prices to move higher next week.In the Kitco News Gold Survey, 21 participants responded this week. Of those, 12 see prices up, five see prices down and four say sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.
Those who anticipate gains by gold cite an increase in ideas that the Federal Reserve may consider more loosening of monetary policy after all following softer economic data since last Friday’s U.S. monthly employment report. Previously, stronger data and Fed comments had left markets thinking there would be no third round of quantitative easing.
Traders also cite gold’s ability to hold chart support in the low $1,600s and bounce from there.
“China is reportedly getting ready to lower bank reserves, Europe is about to embark on buying bonds to lower interest rates in Spain and Italy, and QE3 is again being spoken about as U.S. economic data turns softer from what was seen in the first quarter of the year,” said Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of The Linn Group.

Those anticipating a retreat cite the inability of gold to probe through nearby chart resistance just above $1,680, as well as recent gains by the U.S. dollar.

Gold seen to reach All time high by year end...

Commerz bank のコモディティヘッドの見通し。
年末に最高値を更新する、とのこと。
弱気ばかりとは限らず、強気の見方もまだまだ根強いようです。

Gold traders expected to "Bearish" for the first time in 2012...

相変わらず荒っぽい動きが続くマーケットですが
Bloombergのサーベイでゴールドは今年初めて弱気となったとのことです

【Gold Traders Bearish for First Time in 2012】




Gold survey results: Bullish: 9 Bearish: 15 Hold: 5
Gold traders are bearish for the first time this year after the Federal Reserve signaled it may refrain from more monetary stimulus and jewelers in India, the world’s biggest bullion market, shut to protest a new tax.
Fifteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to decline next week and five were neutral, the highest proportion since Dec. 30. Imports by India may have plunged as much as 81 percent in March and could drop 40 percent in the second quarter, the Bombay Bullion Association said April 2. Indian jewelers, who sell more gold than Australian and U.S. mines produce in a year, were closed today for a 20th day.
Gold traders are bearish for the first time this year after the Federal Reserve signaled it may refrain from more monetary stimulus and jewelers in India, the world’s biggest bullion market, shut to protest a new tax.
Fifteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to decline next week and five were neutral, the highest proportion since Dec. 30. Imports by India may have plunged as much as 81 percent in March and could drop 40 percent in the second quarter, the Bombay Bullion Association said April 2. Indian jewelers, who sell more gold than Australian and U.S. mines produce in a year, were closed today for a 20th day.


金トレーダー：今年に入って初の弱気－インドのストで
４月５日（ブルームバーグ）：金トレーダーは今年に入って初めて弱気姿勢を示している。米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が追加刺激策を実施しない可能性を示唆したことに加え、世界最大の金市場であるインドの宝飾業者が新税に抗議して営業を停止していることが背景にある。
ブルームバーグがアナリスト29人を対象に実施した調査では、15人が来週の金相場は下落すると予測し、５人が中立姿勢を示した。下落予想と中立姿勢を示したアナリストの割合は昨年12月30日以降で最大となった。

・・・中略

在ロンドンのアナリスト、キャロル・ファーガソン氏は「量的緩和見通しが後退し、それを米景気が堅調さを増していると読み取るなら、金にとっては弱材料になる」と指摘。「金は今年、安全な投資先としての輝きを若干失っている。インドの宝飾品市場は依然として非常に重要だ。ストライキが長期化すれば懸念が強まる」との見方を示した。

Amid lack of fresh factor, TOCOM total trading volume little recovered in Mar...

【TOCOM have been trend in downward but increased total turnover for Precious metals in March】
ＴＯＣＯＭの3月の出来高、貴金属編です。
3月は昨年10月以来の高水準だったんですね。
ゴールドは115.6万枚と1-2月の平均102万枚を10％以上も上回りました。
とはいえ厳しい状況に変わりなし。
とりあえずはこの水準をキープするのが当面の目標となるのでしょう、きっと。

CFTC Commitment of Traders Reports as of 27-Mar. 2012

【CFTC Commitment of Traders Reports as of 27-Mar12】
久々にＣＦＴＣ明細です。
オイルや穀物に比べると貴金属はあまり目立った動きがないですね。
ゴールドは結果的にショートカバーということでしょうか、
ショートの減少分でネットロングは大きく拡大しています。